Sunday, August 26, 2012

Republican Climate of Divisiveness, Part One. It’s Easy to Secede

I wrote previously about how Republicans have created a climate of hostility and, according to some Republicans, the hostility is great enough to warrant a civil war. We can only hope that these Republicans remain a minority within their Party.

In 1861, Confederate hostility was strong enough that it led to secession. Could this happen again?

Despite some of the claims made by people such as Judge Head and Governor Perry, it is unlikely that states like Texas will actually try to secede. It is unlikely because the states are economically interconnected to an extent that would be considered unbelievable in 1861. But it remains possible, at least in the long run.

But it would be surprisingly easy for Texas to secede from the Union. First, the agreement by which Texas entered the Union contains a clause that permits them to secede. No other state has such a clause.

Second, while, like any state, Texas is tightly interconnected with the national economy, they do have their own largely separate power grid, and an oil industry that would continue to provide an income to them. And they have lots of seaports. Aircraft and big oil ships could come and go without crossing over any other states. Right now, Texas demands to receive oil from the Keystone Pipeline that would be built at federal expense and cross several other states; the non-Texas states would demand payment for that oil if Texas seceded. And Texas is demanding free access to Oklahoma water, citing the commerce clause of the Constitution. If they were not a state, they could not receive this water, at least without paying dearly for it. Nevertheless, it would be a lot easier for Texas to secede than, say, Oklahoma.

How would they be able to secede? To get the process started, all they would have to do is to declare themselves to be an independent far-right conservative nation. The rest would follow from this. There would be a mass exodus of moderates and liberals (there are apparently quite a few in Austin), and they would have to all sell their land at once. Land prices would fall, allowing the conservatives to buy up a lot of liberal land cheaply. This would make the conservatives even richer than they are now. With their new influx of money, they could buy lots of arms and equipment on the open free market. They would have a military system rather quickly. Within a decade or so there would be an independent, fortified Republic of Texas.

Texas would be unlikely to secede if the federal government is conservative. If the federal government is run by Democrats, they would be unlikely to declare war on Texas the way the USA declared war on the CSA in 1861. Texas would be unlikely to suffer the devastation that the South experienced in 1865. There would be military engagements, probably along the border as both countries, USA and ROT, tried to control border crossings.

Conservative Texans consider themselves Americans, but it might be surprisingly easy for them to change this view of themselves. If they become convinced that “American” is a term that includes those whom they brand as “liberals,” they might next become convinced that this inclusive term is intolerable.

Many or most Republicans enjoy being divisive. For them, at least in Texas, secession might be an obtainable goal. Landlocked conservative states such as Oklahoma or Arkansas would find it more difficult—unless, of course, they joined with Texas.

The main thing is that many Republicans no longer consider themselves fellow citizens with those whom they brand as liberals. This is the single most important factor that could lead to secession and, perhaps, to a civil war as well. It is unlikely but possible.

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